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The Permanent Portfolio: Author Interview With Craig RowlandCRYPTOCURRENCY TRADE SHOW
Inflation: A period when consumer prices generally are rising. Tight money or recession: A period during which the growth of the supply of money in circulation slows down. This leaves people with less cash than they expected to have, and usually leads to a recession—a period of poor economic conditions.
Deflation: The opposite of inflation. Consumer prices decline and the purchasing power value of money grows. In the past, deflation has sometimes triggered a depression—a prolonged period of very bad economic conditions, as in the s.
Browne then identifies which asset classes perform well in each environment: Stocks take advantage of prosperity. Bonds also take advantage of prosperity. In addition, they profit when interest rates collapse during a deflation. You should expect bonds to do poorly during times of inflation and tight money. Gold not only does well during times of intense inflation, it does very well.
Gold generally does poorly during times of prosperity, tight money, and deflation. Cash is most profitable during a period of tight money. Not only is it a liquid asset that can give you purchasing power when your income and investments might be ailing, but the rise in interest rates increases the return on your dollars. Cash also becomes more valuable during a deflation as prices fall.
Cash is essentially neutral during a time of prosperity, and it is a loser during times of inflation. There are other versions of this portfolio that people have modified over time, but the general 4-quadrant framework is both simple and powerful. My Highlights and Notes Think about your own occupation, for example. And those conditions are constantly changing. Markets change, technology changes, the competition changes, consumer tastes change, and laws and regulations change. You earned your wealth because your talent and effort harmonized with the circumstances in which you found yourself.
The distinction between investing and speculating is important. Any attempt to beat the return available to others must, by definition, also involve the risk that your return will be smaller than what the market is offering effortlessly—or even that there will be no return at all.
Location Note: I think there is something here and obviously people doing TSLA calls and the like are speculating, but even a passive investment strategy involves active decisions. Safety comes from devising realistic ways to deal with uncertainty. The truth is simply that: Anything can happen. Nothing has to happen. Nor can you expect him to spot the right times to buy and sell reliably.
Certainly, you want to err more on the side of diversification. But it effectively eliminates the risk of losing everything, because investment prices rarely go to zero. And if you diversify—not just among stocks, but across investment markets—even a severe loss in one market can be offset, or even overshadowed, by profits in another. In other words, this portfolio should protect you no matter what the future brings.
You can achieve a great deal of protection with a surprisingly simple mix of investments. The three absolute requirements for such a portfolio are: 1. Safety: It should protect you against every possible economic future.
You should profit during times of normal prosperity, but you also should be safe and perhaps even profit during bad times—inflation, recession, or even depression. This stability also permits you to turn your attention away from your investments, confident that your portfolio will protect you in any circumstance.
Your portfolio needs to respond well only to those broad movements. And they fit into four general categories: 1. Prosperity: A period during which living standards are rising, the economy is growing, business is thriving, interest rates usually are falling, and unemployment is declining. In the past, deflation has sometimes triggered a depression—a prolonged period of very bad economic conditions, as in the s, Location To be protected in all circumstances, each economic environment must have at least one investment in the Permanent Portfolio that responds well to it.
Fortunately, there are simple investments that can do that. You earned your wealth because your talent and effort harmonized with the circumstances in which you found yourself. As time passes, government finds new ways to interfere with your business, your profession, and your life.
Expanding regulations and the litigation explosion combine to make businesses much more vulnerable today to surprises and sudden disasters. And advances in technology change the demand for your products or service. So assume that what you have now is irreplaceable, that you could never earn it again—even if you suspect you could. But the first step is to recognize how precious your wealth is, and resolve to say No!
When you invest, you accept whatever return the markets are paying investors in general. When you speculate, you attempt to beat that return—to do better than other investors are doing—through clever timing, forecasting, or selection. The implicit assumption is that you have knowledge or talents other investors lack. And no matter how they assure you that a given speculation involves little risk, it is still a speculation. The distinction between investing and speculating is important.
Any attempt to beat the return available to others must, by definition, also involve the risk that your return will be smaller than what the market is offering effortlessly—or even that there will be no return at all. Nor can you know for sure how other people will react to future events. In fact, you have dealt successfully with uncertainty in amassing the money you now have to invest.
Because no psychic or seer can tell you what the future holds, you make decisions in your business and personal life using whatever knowledge is available. Or you start a business with no guarantee that the marketplace will be kind to you. You marry, acquire friends, pick a place to live—all without any certain knowledge of how your choices will turn out. Most of us live that way—and live well. You would never rely on someone who claimed to predict the outcome of these activities. The investment world is overpopulated with seers who claim to have amazing forecasting records.
Investing is no different from the rest of life. Investment prices flow from the decisions of millions of different people. Investors and advisors have no more ability to foresee those decisions than psychics or fortune-tellers do. Safety comes from devising realistic ways to deal with uncertainty. The truth is simply that: Anything can happen. Nothing has to happen. The beginning of investment wisdom is the realization that we live in an uncertain world—and that no one can eliminate the uncertainty for you.
If you read many investment publications, you could easily conclude that this is what you should do. There are plenty of stories about Wall Street wizards who can get you into and out of investments with skillful timing. And so many of them seem to have outstanding track records. Investment advisors come in many garbs—such as stock and commodity brokers, newsletter writers, financial journalists, money managers, and financial planners. Of course, some advisors do both. Helpers The Helper is worth listening to.
He can teach you the mechanics and procedures for getting things done in the investment world. He can raise the questions you need to answer in order to devise a portfolio that suits your needs. He can help you reduce the tax bill on your investment profits. Excerpted by permission of St. All rights reserved.
No part of this excerpt may be reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the publisher. Excerpts are provided by Dial-A-Book Inc. Read lessBecause of the internet and electronic books I felt compelled to write something for a new audience. This book is for the average person who wants to know more about Fail Safe Investing. With over a years of combined experience in the IT field our findings may surprise you. Nearly every page of this book is loaded with valuable information that you can immediately apply.
This is one of the best investments you could make into your future!
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The Permanent Portfolio: Author Interview With Craig Rowland
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