- 9 лет ago
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- Автор: Vocage
Conventional NFL statistics value plays based solely on their net yardage. The NFL determines the best players by adding up all their yards no matter what situations they came in or how many plays it took to get them. Now, why would they do that? Football has one objective -- to get to the end zone -- and two ways to achieve that -- by gaining yards and achieving first downs. The popularity of fantasy football only exacerbates the problem.
Fans have gotten used to judging players based on how much they help fantasy teams win and lose, not how much they help real teams win and lose. Typical fantasy scoring further skews things by counting the yard between the one and the goal line as 61 times more important than all the other yards on the field each yard worth 0.
Has Ellington done something special? Not really. When an offense gets the ball on first-and-goal at the two-yard line, they're expected to score a touchdown five out of six times. Ellington is getting credit for the work done by the passing game. On first down, a play is considered a success if it gains 45 percent of needed yards; on second down, a play needs to gain 60 percent of needed yards; on third or fourth down, only gaining a new first down is considered success.
A successful play is worth one point; an unsuccessful play, zero points with fractional points in between e. Extra points are awarded for big plays, gradually increasing to three points for 10 yards assuming those yards result in a first down , four points for 20 yards, and five points for 40 yards or more. Losing three or more yards is -1 point. Interceptions occurring on fourth down during the last two minutes of a game incur no penalty whatsoever, but all others average -6 points, with an adjustment for the length of the pass and the location of the interception since an interception tipped at the line is more likely to produce a long return than an interception on a yard pass.
A fumble is worth anywhere from Red zone plays get a bonus: 20 percent for team offense, five percent for team defense, and 10 percent for individual players. There is a bonus given for a touchdown, which acknowledges that the goal line is significantly more difficult to cross than the previous 99 yards although this bonus is nowhere near as large as the one used in fantasy football.
Our system is a bit more complex than the one in Hidden Game thanks to our subsequent research, which added larger penalties for turnovers, the fractional points, and a slightly higher baseline for success on first down. The reason why all fumbles are counted, no matter whether they are recovered by the offense or defense, is explained in FO Basics.
Teams are always compared to the overall offensive average, as the team made its own choice whether to pass or rush. When it comes to individual players, however, rushing plays are compared to other rushing plays, passing plays to other passing plays, tight ends to tight ends, wideouts to wideouts, and so on. Going back to our example of the three-yard rush, if Player A gains three yards under a set of circumstances in which the average NFL running back gains only one yard, then Player A has a certain amount of value above others at his position.
Likewise, if Player B gains three yards on a play on which, under similar circumstances, an average NFL back gains four yards, that Player B has negative value relative to others at his position. The biggest variable in football is the fact that each team plays a different schedule against teams of disparate quality. Rushing and passing plays are adjusted based on down and location on the field; passing plays are also adjusted based on how the defense performs against passes to running backs, tight ends, or wide receivers.
Defenses are adjusted based on the average success of the offenses they are facing. The final step in calculating DVOA involves normalizing each year's ratings. As you may know, offensive levels in the NFL have gone up and down over the years. Right now, the overall level of offense in the league is probably at its highest level of all time.
Therefore, we need to ensure that DVOA in a given season isn't skewed by league environment. However, because pass plays are more efficient than run plays, league averages for team passing and team rushing are not zero. Of course, one of the hardest parts of understanding a new statistic is interpreting its scale. To use DVOA, you have to know what numbers represent good performance and what numbers represent bad performance. As you might imagine, some players with fewer attempts will surpass both extremes.
Because DVOA does a better job of explaining past wins and predicting future wins than total yards, it gives a more accurate picture of how much better or worse a team really is relative to the rest of the league. Because it compares each play only to plays with similar circumstances, this advantage also applies vis-a-vis situational team rankings.
The list of top DVOA offenses on third down, for example, is more accurate than the conventional NFL conversion statistic because it takes into account that converting third-and-long is more difficult than converting third-and-short, and that a turnover is worse than an incomplete pass because it eliminates the opportunity to move the other team back with a punt on fourth down. The same could be said about plays on fourth down or in the red zone. Second, unlike formulas based on comparing drives rather than individual plays, DVOA can be separated into a myriad of splits e.
Therefore, we're able to break teams and players down to find strengths and weaknesses in a variety of situations. All Pittsburgh third downs can be compared to how an average team does on third down. Josh McCown and Mike Glennon can each be compared to how an average quarterback performs in the red zone, or with a lead, or in the second half of the game. This doesn't just give us a better idea of which team or player is better. More importantly, it helps us understand why they're better, and therefore allows us to offer prescriptions for improvement in the future.
Finally, a third advantage of DVOA is that normalization makes our comparisons of current teams and players to past teams and players going back to more accurate than those based on traditional statistics like wins or total yards, as well as those based on more sophisticated metrics that aren't normalized e.
For instance, which Denver Broncos team had the better offense: the edition with Peyton Manning, or the club led by Terrell Davis? Going by total yardage 7, vs. The team were clearly better. However, this ignores the fact that the average NFL offense was much more pass-oriented, and thus more efficient, in than in If we take the difference in offensive environment into account by using DVOA, it turns out that the Broncos offense was slightly better relative to the rest of the league Other plays are included for both, but scored differently.
This leads to separate baselines on each side of the ball. For instance Only four total penalties are included. Two penalties count as pass plays on both sides of the ball: intentional grounding and defensive pass interference. The other two penalties are included for offense only: false starts and delay of game. Aborted snaps and incomplete backwards lateral passes are only penalized on offense, not rewarded on defense.
Adjustments for playing from behind or with a lead in the fourth quarter are different for offense and defense, as are adjustments for the final two minutes of the first half when the offense is not near field-goal range. Offense gets a slight penalty and defense gets a slight bonus for games indoors. This version fixed some errors that existed in various adjustments, and also changed team statistics so that scrambles now count as pass plays rather than run plays.
We are slowly updating our past database to change the numbers within to the new version of DVOA. As of now, the years have been updated to version 7. Those numbers have only been updated to the new version in Scrambles are listed in the play-by-play going back to the season, except for in We have scrambles marked from our first-ever year of game charting.
In individual player statistics, scrambles are still counted under a quarterback's rushing stats rather than his passing stats. By definition, an average level of performance is better than that provided by half of the league and the ability to maintain that level of performance while carrying a heavy workload is very valuable indeed. What would happen to those plays? Rather those plays would have to be distributed among the remaining players in the offense, with the bulk of them being given to a replacement running back.
This is where we arrive at the concept of replacement level, borrowed from our partners at Baseball Prospectus. When a player is removed from an offense, he is usually not replaced by a player of similar ability. Nearly every starting player in the NFL is a starter because he is better than the alternative. Of course, the real replacement player is different for each team in the NFL. Sometimes a player like Ryan Grant or Danny Woodhead will be cut by one team and turn into a star for another.
On other teams, the drop from the starter to the backup can be even greater than the general drop to replacement level. The Indianapolis Colts of the dark year between the Manning and Luck eras--will be the hallmark example of this until the end of time.
The choice to start an inferior player or to employ a sub-replacement level backup, however, falls to the team, not the starter being evaluated. Thus, we generalize replacement level for the league as a whole, as the ultimate goal is to evaluate players independent of the quality of their teammates.
Our estimates of replacement level were re-done during the season and are computed differently for each position. For quarterbacks, we analyzed situations where two or more quarterbacks had played meaningful snaps for a team in the same season, then compared the overall DVOA of the original starters to the overall DVOA of the replacements.
We did not include situations where the backup was actually a top prospect waiting his turn on the bench, since a first-round pick is by no means a "replacement-level" player. At other positions, there is no easy way to separate players into "starters" and "replacements," since unlike at quarterback, being the starter doesn't make you the only guy who gets in the game.
Instead, we used a simpler method, ranking players at each position in each season by attempts. The players who made up the final 10 percent of passes or runs were split out as "replacement players" and then compared to the players making up the other 90 percent of plays at that position. This took care of the fact that not every non-starter at running back or wide receiver is a freely available talent.
Think of Jonathan Stewart or Randall Cobb, for example. Saying that Tony Romo's passes were worth 40 success value points over replacement in has very little value without a context to tell us if 40 is good total or a bad one. It is our estimate that a generic replacement-level quarterback, throwing in the same situations as Romo, would have been worth 1, fewer yards.
First downs, touchdowns, and turnovers all have an estimated yardage value in this system, so what we are saying is that a generic replacement-level quarterback would have fewer yards and touchdowns and more turnovers that would total up to be equivalent to the value of 1, yards. Football statistics can't be analyzed in the same way baseball statistics are. After all, there are only 16 games in a season.
The more games, the more events to analyze, and the more events to analyze, the more statistical significance. That is true, but the trick is to consider each play in an NFL game as a separate event. For example, Drew Brees played only 16 games in , but in those 16 games he had passing plays including sacks and 16 rushing plays including scrambles for a total of events. Ian Kinsler in played in games and had plate appearances.
For the most part, a quarterback who plays a full season will have almost the same number of plays as a baseball hitter who plays in most of his team's games. A running back will have fewer plays than a quarterback, and wide receivers and tight ends will have even fewer. But there should still be enough plays with most starting running backs and receivers to allow for analysis with some significance.
As an example, DeMarco Murray ran the ball times in , and was the target of 64 passes including incompletes , for a total of plays. In general, a starting running back will have plays over 16 games. Receivers are used a bit less, and therefore their stats are likely not as accurate.
DVOA indicators of a team being able to sustain or extend a lead: Good rushing offense Good passing defense Poor opponent passing offense Here, the more, the better — so the more indicators that a team has, the better chance it will be able to extend the lead. Since DVOA relies on contextualizing for opponents, high variance results in games can throw off DVOA early in the season when the sample size is small.
Football Outsiders attempts to account for this variance with their DAVE metric DVOA adjusted for variation early , which mixes early-season performance with preseason projections. Still, it heavily relies on their preseason projections being correct.
These grades are then placed on a scale and are provided on a per-game and seasonal basis. Why should bettors use PFF player grades? PFF player grades are an excellent tool for identifying skill gaps in NFL matchups , whether in the trenches, in coverage, or elsewhere.
It is also helpful to determine how a team might fare given injuries to their starters or their meaningful depth players, as overall player grades are broken down further by their usage and how they fare in specific game elements concerning their position.
PFF player grades are entirely manually generated by their analyst staff. Although PFF ensures that only the top-end of their staff of analysts handles and reviews the process, the fact remains that it is still an arbitrary process prone to human bias and error. PFF also acknowledges that it cannot know the play call and responsibilities of all players on every play and will default to a zero grade for players on such plays. This means skillful players may be losing out on favorable grades if their role is generally muted or undeterminable.
EPA is a metric that quantifies the number of expected points that a play adds or loses. EPA uses historical data based on the down, distance, and field position to determine the points scored on average from that exact situation. The difference is the EPA. EPA can then be summed to evaluate teams, players, formations, play types play-action, pre-snap motion , and more. Why should bettors use EPA?
It is also beneficial as a matchup tool. EPA is not opponent-adjusted and can be misleading if a team has faced an unbalanced schedule. Secondly, offenses have become more efficient over time and face the challenge of trading off sample size for more representative data.
Why should bettors use CPOE? Raw completion percentage is far too reliant on the average depth of target aDOT , and strictly judging quarterbacks on raw completion percentage can be misleading. Combined with other advanced metrics, it is easier to identify which quarterbacks are genuinely adding value. CPOE relies on private player tracking data and a proprietary formula and is impossible to reconstruct.
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